Oscar Predictions – FINAL PREDICTIONS

With the Oscar nominations being announced Tuesday morning, here are my final Oscar predictions for the 2017 Oscars.

 

I’m only going to predict the major categories and skip the tech awards for spacial reasons.

 

 

BEST PICTURE

We have three guarantees in LA LA LAND, MOONLIGHT, and MANCHESTER BY THE SEA.  These are the three front runners and guaranteed nominations.  HIDDEN FIGURES has been making some moves, as has LION, which pulled a surprise DGA nomination.  Some former big players, like SILENCE and FENCES could miss at the end of the day, which would be shocking.  Can surprises like NOCTURNAL ANIMALS and even DEADPOOL make the cut?

 

1 – LA LA LAND 

2 – MOONLIGHT

3 – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

4 – ARRIVAL

5 – HIDDEN FIGURES

6 – LION

7 – HACKSAW RIDGE

8 – FENCES

9 – HELL OR HIGH WATER

10 – NOCTURNAL ANIMALS

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Four directors are all but guaranteed.  Expect to for sure to hear DAMIEN CHAZELLE (La La Land), BARRY JENKINS (Moonlight), and DENIS VILLENEUVE (Arrival) and more than likely KENNETH LONERGAN (Manchester by the Sea).  But who is the fifth spot?  D.G.A nominee GARTH DAVIS (Lion) is the easiest to choose, but what about MEL GIBSON (Hacksaw Ridge)?  MARTIN SCORSESE (Silence)?  TOM FORD (Nocturnal Animals)?  DENZEL WASHINGTON (Fences)?  It’s going to be tough.
1 – DAMIEN CHAZELLE – LA LA LAND

2 -BARRY JENKINS – MOONLIGHT

3 – KENNETH LONERGAN – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

4 – DENIS VILLENEUVE – ARRIVAL

5 – MARTIN SCORSESE – SILENCE

 

 

BEST ACTOR

CASEY AFFLECK (Manchester by the Sea) has been running away with this category all year, winning every award possible.  He’s the favorite by a long shot and locking up SAG will solidify it for him.  His controversial past doesn’t seem to be getting in his way, which is excellent.  If anyone can stop him, it would be DENZEL WASHINGTON for his powerhouse performance in Fences.  Might we see a surprise nomination Tuesday morning?  That would be fun.

 

1 – CASEY AFFLECK – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

2 – DENZEL WASHINGTON – FENCES

3 – VIGGO MORTENSEN – CAPTAIN FANTASTIC

4 – RYAN GOSLING – LA LA LAND

5 – ANDREW GARFIELD – HACKSAW RIDGE

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

I still think this is a two-horse race between EMMA STONE (La La Land) and NATALIE PORTMAN (JACKIE).  Stone won the Globe, Portman did not, so Stone has the advantage now.  SAG will be the true teller.  Could ISABELLE HUPPERT (ELLE) pull an upset?  Her Globe win and critical recognition gives me hope.

 

1 – EMMA STONE – LA LA LAND 

2 –  NATALIE PORTMAN – JACKIE

3 – ISABELLE HUPPERT – ELLE

4 – AMY ADAMS – ARRIVAL

5 – MERYL STREEP – FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I still believe MAHERSHALA ALI (Moonlight) is the favorite, but it’s not going to be as easy as it was originally with a lot of competition in the field.  With veterans like JEFF BRIDGES (Hell or High Water) and HUGH GRANT (Florence Foster Jenkins) and newcomers DEV PATEL (Lion), AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON (Nocturnal Animals), and LUCAS HEDGES (Manchester by the Sea) all vying for spots.  And of course, with such an open field, we can always expect a surprise here!

 

1 – MAHERSHALA ALI – MOONLIGHT

2 – JEFF BRIDGES – HELL OR HIGH WATER

3 – AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON – NOCTURNAL ANIMALS

4 – DEV PATEL – LION

5 – HUGH GRANT – FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

VIOLA DAVIS (Fences) has this one in the bag.  MICHELLE WILLIAMS (Manchester by the Sea) may give her some competition, but it won’t be enough.

 

1 – VIOLA DAVIS – FENCES

2 – MICHELLE WILLIAMS – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

3 – NICOLE KIDMAN – LION

4 – NAOMI HARRIS – MOONLIGHT 

5 – OCTAVIA SPENCER – HIDDEN FIGURES

 

 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This will be a fight between MANCHESTER BY THE SEA and LA LA LAND.  Both have been winning awards left and right, both are deserving.  I’m sticking with Manchester right now, but may change in the coming days.  Expect this to be the category where some films get recognized that missed Best Picture.

 

1 – MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

2 – LA LA LAND 

3 – HELL OR HIGH WATER

4 – THE LOBSTER

5 – ZOOTOPIA

 

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

With MOONLIGHTbeing moved to Adapted instead of Original, this category got a whole lot more interesting.  Will it be August Wilson’s brilliant words of FENCES taking home the gold, or the power of Moonlight?  Or maybe B.A.F.T.A favorite NOCTURNAL ANIMALS?

 

1 – MOONLIGHT 

2 – FENCES

3 – LION

4 – ARRIVAL

5 – NOCTURNAL ANIMALS

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

ZOOTOPIA won the Globe and leads the Annie nominations, so it is the frontrunner right now.  But, any of these could win.

 

1 – ZOOTOPIA

2 – KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS

3 – MOANA 

4 – FINDING DORY

5 – THE RED TURTLE

 

 

 

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